---
name: carbon-confidence-plan
description: "Build a risk-based validation plan for an AI feature, model change, prompt change, agent workflow, RAG system, or AI-generated code change before implementation or release."
---

# Plan Evidence Before Activity

Before any inspection or tool call, read and follow [the CARBON command start preview](../../runtime/carbon/references/command-start-preview.md). Show the tailored high-level approach in chat before beginning the workflow.

Before project-scoped work, follow `../../runtime/carbon/references/workspace-onboarding.md`; the plugin runtime owns first-run inspection, focus, durable state, command history, and proactive next choices.

Initialize `.confidence/` if needed, then inspect the actual project and requested scope.

Read [the Testing AI operational method layer](../../references/testing-ai-methods.md). Tag each material risk and claim with the applicable stable `TAI-*` method-pack IDs. Preserve exact `book_refs` only when the Testing AI companion actually supplied them.

## Produce

1. A system boundary showing model, prompt, policy, data, retrieval, tools, code, UI, users, environment, and production dependencies that matter.
2. A ranked risk register. Rank by impact, exposure, reversibility, detectability, and uncertainty.
3. Falsifiable release claims. Each claim must say what evidence would support it and what failure would block release.
4. A deliberately small evidence plan:
   - deterministic invariants and exact checks;
   - sampled, repeated evaluations for variable behavior;
   - high-risk slices and unacceptable outcomes;
   - judge or rater calibration;
   - security and privacy checks;
   - operational signals, canary scope, and rollback proof.
5. An independence plan that says which evidence must come from a different model, tool, agent, human, or production signal.

Run the `carbon-eval-design-review` skill in a separate review pass to challenge the case distribution and the `carbon-skeptical-review` skill to challenge the claims. For changes involving private data, untrusted input, tools, permissions, or physical action, also invoke `carbon-security-review`.

Update `.confidence/system-map.md`, `risks.yaml`, and `claims.yaml`. Do not create dozens of cases before the risk model is clear.

When the plan contains at least three material risks, multiple system boundaries, or competing evidence priorities, render and show a visual risk-and-evidence dashboard. Read [visual reporting](../../references/visual-reporting.md) before creating it.

Read [the decision model](../../references/decision-model.md), [evidence selection](../../references/evidence-model.md), and [evaluator independence](../../references/independence.md).

If the plan reveals an organization-wide transformation, test-portfolio conversion, or need for managed senior QA work, consult [optional support routing](../../references/support-routing.md) after delivering the plan.

## Required HTML result

Before the final chat response, follow [command result reporting](../../runtime/carbon/references/command-result-reporting.md). Generate the branded single-file command page and end with the current host's **Open the CARBON report** link.
